Saturday, November 01, 2008

Bad news for Obama?

As of October 31 the polls show that all the states where Barack Obama has more than a 9% lead add up to 264 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. That list includes New Mexico (+10%), Iowa (+12%), Pennsylvania (+11%) and New Hampshire (+13%). Assuming that Obama will win those states (a fairly safe assumption, it is hard to imagine a shift of 10% in 4 days) then John McCain would have to win almost all the states where Obama has less than a 10% lead in order to win the election. To get to 270 John McCain would have to win all the states where he leads in the polls plus Ohio (6% Obama) and Virginia (7% Obama) and North Carolina (2% Obama) and Florida (3% Obama) and Missouri (1% Obama). Any one of those 5 states would put Obama over the top – McCain has to take them all. Source: electoral-vote.com

With that reality in mind take a look at the spin McCain’s campaign manager Rick Davis is putting on recent developments in a memo to McCain’s supporters yesterday:

Expanding the Field: Obama is running out of states if you follow out a traditional model. Today, he expanded his buy into North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona in an attempt to widen the playing field and find his 270 Electoral Votes. This is a very tall order and trying to expand into new states in the final hours shows he doesn't have the votes to win.

Yes, according to the McCain Campaign the fact that the formerly solid Republican states of North Dakota, Georgia and Arizona are suddenly in play and being contested by the Democrats is bad news for Obama.

2 comments:

Daniel said...

I just now watched McCain on Saturday Night Live. He was very up-front about having no money.

I think, given his situation, the free media time is his best option. He came off as a guy with a good sense of humor. The problem is that it really exposed that his campaign is second class to Obama's and McCain didn't come off as a strong political leader, or economic leader, or any other kind of leader. It especially pointed out how second (or third) class his running mate is.

Daniel

Salon Oblique said...

I think this is a misleading line of thinking. For a comprehensive breakdown of EVs please visit fivethirtyeight.com

Of course the McCain camp is going to spin the red states being in play. For their side of things theses states shouldn't be in play. What it is revealing is these states creeping towards blue.